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CISTI'2020 - 15th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies

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Predictive model to reduce the dropout rate of university students in Perú: Bayesian Networks vs. Decision Trees

This research proposes a prediction model that might help reducing the dropout rate of university students in Peru. For this, a three-phase predictive analysis model was designed which was combined with the stages proposed by the IBM SPSS Modeler methodology. Bayesian network techniques was compared with decision trees for their level of accuracy over other algorithms in an Educational Data Mining (EDM) scenario. Data were collected from 500 undergraduate students from a private university in Lima. The results indicate that Bayesian networks behave better than decision trees based on metrics of precision, accuracy, specificity, and error rate. Particularly, the accuracy of Bayesian networks reaches 68.61% while the accuracy for decision trees is 60.23% in the training sample for iteration with 7:3 rate. On the other hand, the variables athletic person (0.30%), own house (0.21%), and high school grades (0.13%) are the ones that contribute most to the prediction model for both Bayesian networks and decision trees.

Jimmy Armas
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas
Peru

Erik Cevallos
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas
Peru

Claudio Barahona
Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas
Peru

Elizabeth| Grandón
Universidad del Bío-Bío
Chile

 


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